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Olympic, Central Kitsap football: playoff scenarios

October 19th, 2009 at Mon, 19th, 2009 at 3:07 pm by

Gotta love the final month of the regular season in high school football.
Not only are the games getting more and more important, but it’s finally an acceptable time to talk about one of my favorite topics: playoff scenarios.
Klahowya is eliminated from postseason contention, but Central Kitsap and Olympic both have chances to extend their seasons.
So let’s take a look at what could happen over the next two weeks in terms of the postseason:
On the Class 3A side, Olympic has rebounded from a three-game losing streak to win its past two games. That puts the Trojans at 4-3 overall and 2-3 in Olympic/Western Cascade League play.
OWL is allotted four playoff spots, three of which have already been locked up by Timberline, Capital and North Thurston. Port Angeles and Bremerton are winless in league play and have no chance to make the playoffs, leaving three teams — Olympic, North Kitsap and Yelm — fighting for the fourth and final spot.
Oly, NK and Yelm boast identical 2-3 league records and all three have two games to play. Oly and NK face off Friday at NK in what is the biggest game of the season for both teams.
The winner of that game — both Oly and NK hold tiebreakers over Yelm by virtue of head-to-head wins — is the odds on favorite to take the OWL No. 4. The loser, on the other hand, is eliminated from playoff contention.
So if Olympic beats NK on Friday, the Trojans would be 3-3 in league going into the season finale against Bremerton, a team that hasn’t won a league game all season. No game is a gimme, but Oly should take care of Bremerton regardless of what happens against NK.
The recipe for the Trojans is simple: win twice and their in.
Assuming the Trojans beat NK and hold serve against the Knights, they would play a state preliminary round game against the No. 1 team from the 3A Greater St. Helens League, either Camas (6-1, 3-0) or Union (6-1, 3-0). Those teams square off Oct. 30, with the winner getting the No. 1 spot and a matchup with OWL No. 4.
The winner of the OWL No. 4/GSHL No. 1 game becomes the District 4 No. 1 seed to the state tournament, getting a matchup with the District 3 No. 4 team in the Round of 16.
To sum it up, Olympic needs to win its next two games and should anticipate a game against either Camas or Union in the prelims if it does.

OWL standings (league, overall)
Timberline                    5   0     7   0
North Thurston           5   0     6   1
Capital                           4   1     4   3
Olympic                        2   3     4   3
North Kitsap                2   3     3   4
Yelm                              2   3     3   4
Bremerton                   0   5     1   6
Port Angeles                0   5     0   7

Meanwhile, Central Kitsap is putting together a winning streak eerily similar to the one it did at the end of last year when it advanced to the Class 4A state semifinals.
The Cougars (4-3, 4-2), who have won three of their past four games, are in good position to make the playoffs out of the Narrows League, which gets five playoff spots. As the standings sit today, CK is in fourth with a chance to move to third with two victories to close the season.
Coach Mark Keel’s team closes against Stadium (2-5, 2-5) and Wilson (5-2, 5-1).
The Stadium game should be a victory, at least on paper, setting up what would be a huge game against Wilson to close the season.
If CK were to win out and earn the No. 3 seed, it would face the Wesco South No. 2 team in prelims with the winner becoming the District 1 No. 3 seed to state. Jackson, Cascade and Mountlake Terrace are currently deadlocked for the Wesco South No. 2 team.
If the Cougars lose either of their final two games, then the best they can finish is No. 4. The No. 4 Narrows team faces the South Puget Sound League  South Division No. 1 in prelims. Right now that would be undefeated Curtis.
Finishing as the No. 5 Narrows team is even worse, however, because that team must play a state prelim play-in game with the winner getting the 4A Greater St. Helens League No. 1 in prelims.
The Cougars need to close the season with two victories and secure the Narrows No. 3 seed to have a realistic chance of making another deep run in the state playoffs.

Narrows League standings (league, overall)
South Kitsap                6   0     7   0
Olympia                        5   1     6   1
Wilson, Woodrow       5   1     5   2
Central Kitsap              4   2     4   3
Foss, Henry                  4   3     4   3
Gig Harbor                   3   3     3   4
Bellarmine Prep.         2   4     3   4
Lincoln                          2   4     2   5
Stadium                         2   5     2   5
Shelton                           1   5     1   6
Mount Tahoma            0   6     1   6

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